"Sindarov is the favorite right now. Prediction markets give 70% for Javokhir to win the match" — Timur Turlov

Timur Turlov

FIDE President

“[Interviewer: What do you expect from the match? Who do you think will win?]

I think the match will be really interesting. I am, of course, a neutral organizer in the current conditions, but it is very interesting to look at what the prediction markets say.

There is one prediction exchange, the largest in the world right now. There is trading on the probability of the outcome of this match. I looked a week ago and the market gives a 70% probability to Sindarov to win this match.

[Interviewer: So he is the favorite?]

Yes, he is the favorite right now. He objectively played the Candidates Tournament very cool. He surprised everyone incredibly with his play. He was not the favorite of the Candidates, but he played head and shoulders above everyone.

And when I looked at the same predictions for the Candidates, he was not even third among the probabilities of those who could win. Mostly people were betting on Hikaru, or on the Americans, who have been fighting for the opportunity to challenge for a very long time, to take first place, but always remain in this buffer of the second or third player.

At the same time, right now neither Gukesh nor Sindarov are the strongest chess players in the world in terms of rating. Of course, we have seen a lot of changes now. I think this match will be interesting. It has a chance to surprise us all again, to inspire, to show that yes, chess is getting younger.

If players used to become Champions at 30 and 40, now, apparently, that’s the new standard. So, just like in all other sports, chess also favors the young.”