Fabiano Caruana, Javokhir Sindarov, and Arjun Erigaisi estimated the probabilities of various scenarios in the chess world. The grandmasters shared their predictions in a video on the Freestyle Chess YouTube channel. Some of the questions were:

Hikaru Nakamura will leave professional chess soon?

Sindarov: 5%

Caruana: 5%

Erigaisi: 10%

Sindarov will win the Candidates?

Sindarov: 15%

Caruana: 8%

Erigaisi: 10%

Vincent Keymer will reach a 2800 rating?

Sindarov: 18%

Caruana: 18.25%

Erigaisi: 3%

Faustino Oro will become the youngest GM in history?

Sindarov: 40%

Caruana: 66%

Erigaisi: 80%

Arjun will change his federation to a European one?

Sindarov: 1%

Caruana: 0.1%

Erigaisi: 0%

World No. 3 Fabiano Caruana (2795) will participate with Javokhir Sindarov (2726) in the Candidates Tournament 2026 in Cyprus. World No. 5 Arjun Erigaisi (2775) has never yet qualified for the Candidates.