Hans Moke Niemann shared his opinion on the World Championship cycle. Niemann believes the current Candidates format is more random than the Knockout system, and notes how Ding Liren qualified for the World Championship Match 2023.

Hans Moke Niemann

Hans Moke Niemann

American GM

“The issue with the World Championship cycle is that it’s very random. I mean, you don’t want to say random because it can be easily misconstrued, but the entire system is not as equitable…

You’re deciding things over such a small sample size, that it’s natural that there are going to be the players who just aren’t the best, who are going to prevail. Because you have such small volume.

The Candidates is only 14 games and you have to be first of eight. The margin in Classical chess just isn’t there. You simply cannot be miles better than your opponent because of how much of a role preparation plays.

So, if you have a format where the difference between top players is so small, and then the volume is so small, in most cases it’s going to be more random than a Knockout format.

I mean, Ding made it into the match by not even winning the Candidates… At least now the system is starting to change.”

The FIDE World Championship is the crowning Match to determine the World Champion. The winner of the Candidates Tournament qualifies for the Match. In 2022 Magnus Carlsen declined to defend his World Champion title. Therefore, the winner of the 2022 Candidates Tournament, Ian Nepomniachtchi, and runner-up Ding Liren qualified for the 2023 World Championship Match. Ding defeated Nepo and became the 17th World Champion.

Credit: Michal Walusza / FIDE