American GM Hans Moke Niemann listed his favorites to win the Candidates in a mini-interview on the ChessBase India YouTube channel. Hans notes Fabiano as the most consistent player of the eight and believes Caruana has a 75% chance of beating Gukesh.

Hans Moke Niemann

Hans Moke Niemann

American GM

“I think Fabiano is definitely the favorite. In terms of consistency, he’s clearly the better player by far. Honestly, after him, I don’t see any other clear favorite.

Matthias Blubaum and Andrey Esipenko — I highly doubt they’ll win. And among the other five, I don’t see much difference in their results over just 14 games.

But if I had to choose between them, I’d only name Sindarov due to his good results recently. Besides, Hikaru isn’t active in Classical chess. I wouldn’t consider him.

If I had to pick a third, it would probably be Pragg. Fabiano, Sindarov, and Pragg — are the three favorites.

If Fabiano wins the Candidates, I think he will beat Gukesh, 75%.”

The FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 will take place from March 28 to April 16, at the Cap St Georges Hotel and Resort in Pegeia, Cyprus. American GM Hans Moke Niemann (2725) has never qualified for the Candidates and will not participate in the 2026 event.

Credit: FIDE/Michal Walusza