Fabiano Caruana, Javokhir Sindarov, and Arjun Erigaisi answered a question about Gukesh’s chances of successfully defending his World Championship Title in the upcoming Match. The grandmasters shared their predictions in a video on the Freestyle Chess YouTube channel.

Sindarov rated the probability of Gukesh defending the title at 49.5%. Fabiano Caruana rated it slightly lower, at 48%:

Fabiano Caruana

Fabiano Caruana

American GM

“First I wanted to give 45%, then 46%, and in the end, I settled on 48%.”

Arjun gave his compatriot 28%. Seeing that he had rated Gukesh lower than everyone else, Erigaisi asked:

Arjun Erigaisi

Arjun Erigaisi

Indian GM

“Oh… Can I change my answer?”

Indian GM Gukesh Dommaraju (2754) became the youngest-ever World Chess Champion in 2024. Fabiano Caruana (2795) has participated in the Candidates Tournament 5 times and in World Championship Matches once in 2018. Javokhir Sindarov (2726) will participate in the Candidates for the first time in 2026, and Arjun Erigaisi (2775) has never qualified.