French GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave shared his thoughts on Fabiano Caruana’s chances at the FIDE Candidates 2026. Maxime highlights Fabiano as the favorite, and estimates his winning chances at 20-25 percent.

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

French GM

“There’s a clear and obvious favorite — Fabiano, because it’s his sixth Candidates. He’s often performed well there and can guarantee top-level play, the ability to win many games in any tournament.

But even though he’s the favorite, anyone can perform well, anyone can win. I don’t think the gap is that big. I’ve heard people say Caruana has a 40% chance of winning — I don’t believe that. I’d put his chances at around 20-25%, but definitely no more.

Even playing extremely well doesn’t guarantee victory, because this is a tournament where you have to surpass yourself, regardless of your strength. Even if you’re Magnus Carlsen, you still have to somehow overperform to win the Candidates. Of course, Magnus at his best would be a favorite with more than a 25% chance, but I’m not even sure I would give Magnus 40%.

Anyone can surprise — in both good and bad ways.”

The FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 will take place from March 28 to April 16, at the Cap St Georges Hotel and Resort in Pegeia, Cyprus. American GM Fabiano Caruana (2795) has made one major attempt at the World Championship, winning the Candidates Tournament in 2018. He lost to Magnus Carlsen in the Title match, drawing all 12 Classical games and then losing 0-3 on Rapid tiebreaks.

Credit: Crystal Fuller